Investment Markets Overview — W/E 17th March 2017

Optimates……is defined as the “nobility or aristocracy” who held power back in the Roman Empire times, aka patrician politicians, whereas the “Populares” were the  people or the people’s party who favoured the cause of the plebeians (plebs or commoners) and in particularly the urban poor. The latter were in effect an opposition party which has morphed into today’s Democrats or Labour parties, albeit that the modern day Optimates, the Republican and Conservatives would claim that they represent all parts of society. Either way, popular politics waxes and wanes dependent on the collective social mood, in particular rising during periods of negative social mood such as the mid-1800s, during the 1930s, and off and on since the early 2000s. It is no coincidence that they go hand-in-hand with the financial stress which follows a financial crisis, the aftermath of which tends to expose corruption among the establishment and political elites and a back-lash against cartels. The change doesn’t happen in a straight line, however, but is patterned akin the life’s “two steps forward and one back.” After the two great strides of last year, Brexit and Trump, this week saw a step-back for populism as a high turn-out Dutch electorate chose the incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals over the euro sceptic Freedom Party of Geert Wilders, who ran on a ticket of anti-immigration and to take the Netherlands out of the euro area and the EU. Wilder’s party did come second out of the 28 parties that competed and added five seats, whilst Rutte’s Liberals lost 8 seats from 2012 and it now has to enter into complex horse-trading to form a coalition government.

Market-wise it was a game of two halves as the pre-FOMC decision on Wednesday saw stocks and commodities lower with bond yields and the $US higher, only to all reverse trend after “official” interest rates were raised in the US and China. For an expansion on the rate increases plus other economic data released, all supported with interesting charts, read on:

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Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

 The G20, an international forum for the governments and central bank governors from 20 major economies, which collectively accounts for 85% of gross world product, two-thirds of the world population and 80% of world trade, held its annual finance ministers’   ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Average Wages V US Retail Sales
3. UK Average Wages V UK Unemployment
4. B of J Official Rate V Japan Market Rates
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

                     “Because it’s the status quo doesn’t mean that it’s correct” 

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