Inpeachment? Wrong time, wrong social mood!

Impeachment…..Is defined as a charge of misconduct made against the holder of a public office and they do not get any higher in the United States of America than the office of The President.

The airwaves and financial talk-shops are abuzz today following the allegation that President “the Donald” Trump asked the former FBI Director James Comey to drop a criminal investigation into one of his former top aides and, if true, did this amount to an obstruction of justice? A memo penned by Comey comes a week after he was fired by Trump and relates to a meeting they had last December, as the FBI was examining the role of Michael Flynn, who subsequently resigned as the National Security Adviser in February. The memo, as cited by the New York Times, suggests that Trump told Comey “I hope you can let this go,” going on to say, Flynn was a “good guy.” The memo follows a recent Washington Post report that Donald Trump had breached the trust of one of its allies during a meeting in the Oval Office with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Russia’s ambassador in the US, by revealing information regarding a possible Isis plot to target airliners using laptop computers.

The allegations within both the memo and report were denied by White House officials but either way it’s upset the markets and over-shadowed any upbeat expectations following recent Trump initiatives such as the tax reform plans.

As for the impeachment speculation we look to the charts, as charts never lie, plus they do a pretty good job on analysing the collective social mood, and to a student of Socionomics, mood governs events, so charts are a very useful tool. In fact we used charts of the Dow within the March 2016 “Trump Card” overview, which observed the following:

“The mid-1970s was also a turbulent time for American politics, as Republican President Richard Nixon resigned from office in 1974 whilst facing an almost certain impeachment over the “Watergate scandal.” It is also interesting to note that oil prices were rocketing, following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, whereas today they have collapsed, following a debt-fueled over-capacity binge. “Tricky Dickey” picked a bear market to orchestrate the break-in, whereas the philandering “I did not have sex with that women Clinton, Bill that is,” picked the near peak of the 1990s mega bull-market, in December 1998, to avoid impeachment and acquitted on a lack of votes, particularly from the Democrats:”

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At its simplest, for Nixon the social mood was negative, hence the chances of impeachment were high, whilst for “Teflon Bill” stocks were high, mood was positive and frankly the herd was making to much money to worry about Clinton’s alleged philandering.

Fast forward to today and stocks are at all-time highs, akin to Clinton’s impeachment talk:

So there you have it, it’s the wrong time and the wrong collective social mood to think about impeachment, but that’s not to say that we are not in a period of market correction, in fact our colour-coded guides are suggesting just that.

Perhaps now, dear reader, is a good time to try the “At your discretion” option in respect of our Investment Markets Overview. You pay what you think its worth.